Toronto Real Estate Board | May 2019 Market Stats
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Toronto Real Estate Board | May 2019 Market Stats


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well, the numbers are in for
the Toronto Real Estate Board. Now the last couple days I’ve
been listening to the radio, and I’ve been reading the
newspapers, and I’m telling you, you’d think the sky was falling sometimes. And of course, what bleeds, reads, well let me tell you I’ve
got some better news for you than some of the things I’ve been hearing. Now, I’m a realist as well, so I’m going to be honest
with you with what’s going on, but also I want to talk
about buyers right now, because buyers need to get off the fence, because I think it’s the perfect time to buy a house right now. And I’ll talk to you about that. So let’s have a look. January through May, okay,
first five months of the year, 4000 sales, 5000 sales,
7200 sales, 9000 sales, almost 1000 sales, sales up
by 10 and a half percent. Good news, right? Of course, this is spring,
this should be happening. What’s happening with inventory? 12000 listings, 13000 listings,
15500, 18000 listings, to 20000 listings, up by 11%. They’re both up by almost the same number, Which means your months
of inventory didn’t what? It didn’t change. Now, months of inventory,
take your listings, divide the sales and your listings, it tells your months of inventory, supply and demand determines
the strength of a market. What’s happened this year? We started with 3
months, 2.6, down to 2.2, two, and then two. And then everybody says,
yeah Rich, but guess what, of course months of
inventory should be less, because we’re in a spring market. Not necessarily. Think about this. In a spring market, do
we have more inventory, yes, do we have more sales, yes, right? So if the months of
inventory is remaining strong or going down that means our
market is getting stronger regardless of the time of year. Because you can have
the time of year in May where your months of
inventory is gonna be the same as February cause you have
less listings, less sales, May you have more listings, more sales. So that means prices should be going up, because four to six,
balanced market, right? Below that, sellers market. Average price, 748, 780, 788, 820, 839. Like, really good news happening here. So we look and see your
average prices up 2.2% over the month before. So this is all really cool stuff. Now, I understand, there’s micromarkets. Certain markets not doing
as well as other markets. I understand that detached
is gonna have more months of inventory than the
more inexpensive properties. I get all of that, right? So you have to study your market. An example of that, if we go into the 905, is there more months of inventory in the 905 opposed to the 416? Of course! Is there more months of inventory the further you move
away from, say, Toronto? Yes, of course, but you’ve
gotta study those markets. And I’ll talk more about
that in just a minute. What happened from 2017
to 2019 in term of sales, we had 10000 sales a couple
years ago, the month of May. Went down to 8400 last May,
almost 10000 again, okay. So we’re not far off what we did in 2017. What about months of inventory? Well, we had 1.8, a little stronger market was happening in 2017. Now keep in mind, 2017,
what happened in April? Foreign buyer tax went in, right? So then we went to 2.4, and then of course now we’re back down to two. So what I see here is I see things starting to look pretty good
for the real estate market. What about prices? Last three years, 2017 we’re at 862, went down to 809, back up to 839. So things again are all
moving the right way. Days on market 11, went up to 20, 2018, down to 19, okay, 2019. Now this year, this is what you might want to use to be talking to buyers. Because this is a line graph
with months of inventory on it. Now a lot of buyers are sitting around, and you know, some of
them are questioning, is it a good time to
buy, should I be waiting, what should I be doing right now? Are prices going down,
are prices going up? If you listen to the radio,
you would think prices, they’re just terrible, right? Well I look at it and
say, I think right now, prices are perfect to get into the market. Let me show you why. If we look at months
of inventory for 2017, where one month, went below one, okay, we come up above one right here. Then we kept going up. Well, why? What happened in April 2017? Foreign buyer tax, right? Inventory started to go up,
sales started to go down, you know, sort of went along like this, and we ended up right here, at about 2.7 months of inventory. So we started at one, ended up at 2.7. That’s determining your
strength of the market. What about last year, 2018? We started at three, remember we ended at
2.7, we started at three. Inventory came down slightly, okay, and then what happened in
here it started to go up. Now what happened in
the beginning of 2018? Stress testing, right? So you can see it affected the market. It was up a little higher, and
we ended up at three months. We ended up right where we
started at three months. What happened in 2019,
let’s look at the white. What’s been going on here? Do you see what’s going on? So what’s happening now
is our months of inventory is almost to where we were in 2017. Now, what is my prediction? I think we’re gonna keep
going like this, I really do. Which means right now, if you’re a buyer, if you’re waiting for
prices to go down more, I think you’re making a big mistake. Think about this. Right now, you can take advantage, cause if you look at some markets, let’s take Aurora, let’s take new market, let’s take maybe Stouffville. Let’s take areas like that. Well if you look at the last couple years, prices are down in some of these markets by 20, 25, 30%. There’s no question, right? So if you go back and study those markets, well, when should they be getting in, nobody knows when the bottom
is til it starts to go up. When should you be
getting in, when you see, based on months of inventory, that your market is starting
to balance out or strengthen, which it is right now. So I’d be showing buyers this, and I’d be saying, this
is the time to buy. Rates are good, some
banks have output rates down in the last little while. Unemployment is good, right? So people are working generally speaking. Our market seems to be starting
to pick up a little steam. It’s not what it was two or
three, or three years ago, but we don’t want it to be
what it was three years ago. We want to work in a market
where buyers can take their time and sellers, right can put
their house on a market and maybe it takes them a
little while to get it sold. So this is a much better
market to be working in, a much better market for
buyers to be buying in, and I think if buyers buy now, I’m telling you, five,
seven years from now, they’re gonna be very happy
they made that decision. So here’s, if I take the 416 and 905, and compare months of inventory. Detached properties, 416 is 2.1, 905, 2.8. Little weaker in 416. Semi detached you’ve got less than one. Very strong market in 416,
but 1.1, very strong in 905. Townhouses, 1.7 in 416 and 1.5 in 905. Condo apartments they’ve both got 1.5. So remember, we’re sitting
with two months of inventory but we got less inventory
in the lower priced stuff and we got a little more inventory in the higher priced
stuff, which is normal. What about prices in the last 10 years, and I’d be talking to
buyers about this too. See, if you go back historically,
in most 10 year periods you’re going to see prices almost double. Like, go back and look,
you’re not always double, but sometimes almost
double, sometimes double. So let’s look at this. This, from 2009 to 2018, would
be a ten year period, right? Prices were 395, let’s say 400,000. And where were they in
April, they were at 809. So if we’re like, you know, 400,000, and we’re at 809, that’s double, isn’t it? Now what happened here, if
I take this ten year period, prices were say, 450, to
double they’d have to be 900, but they’re only 838, so
they’re not quite double. But again, you can look at
all different ten year periods and look at what’s going
on, but relatively speaking, relatively speaking,
in the Toronto market, not all markets but in the Toronto market, if you buy a house, ten years from now it’s probably going to be
doubled in price, or close to it. Maybe it’s going to go up by say, 80%. Which means, if prices
over the last little while have been weakening a little bit, and we’re starting to see our
market start to strengthen because our months of inventory is coming down or staying flat, that would tell me that now is the time I’ve gotta get in the marketplace, and five to seven or 10 years from now, I think they’ll be very,
very happy they did. So get out there, use
some of these graphs, have evidence for them so
they can see what’s going on, educate them as to the right thing to do, and don’t be an order taker,
but become a salesperson, help people make great decisions that are gonna benefit
them years from now. I’ll talk to you next
month, in the meantime, remember everybody, it’s a beautiful life. Make it count.

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