Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver | September 2019 Market Update
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Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver | September 2019 Market Update

– Hey everybody, Richard Robbins here. Well the numbers are in for the
Vancouver Real Estate Board. Let’s have a look at what’s going on. Here’s what I’m gonna share with you. First of all, I’m gonna share
what’s happened through 2019. We’ll look at sales,
listings, months of inventory. Then I wanna get into
what happened September, over September of last
year in terms of sales, and benchmark price. Got some good news
there in terms of sales. Then what I’ve done is
I’ve broken it down, and I’m gonna show you
what’s happened to the price, the benchmark price of detached condos, and townhouses that are attached, and then I’m gonna compare that to what happened in Fraser Valley, and you can see the difference. So have a look here, this
is the whole year, okay. We got January right through
to the end of September. If you follow me, you’ve seen this before. January we start with 1100 sales. What happened? Went up to almost 1500. Then March we went to 17, okay? April, you can see good
things are happening. 1829. May, look, it went to 2638. June, 2,000. This is
your spring of course. Then July was a decent July, okay? Compared to the other months, 2557, then 2231 in August, and we’re at 2333. Now, the good news is, in Vancouver, your sales were up in
September over August. In almost every other market in Canada, that was not the case. September was actually a
little bit lower than it was. So based on your market,
this is very good news. Now, if we take the amount
of sales and we divide that into the active listings
at the end of the month, that gives us months of inventory. Four to six months of inventory, balance. Above six months, buyers. Below four months, sellers. Look where you started, 9.8. But then what started to happen? 7.8. Still buyers. 7.4. Still buyers. 7.8, okay, still buyers, and then 5.6, we moved
into balance market here, then 7.2 buyers. 5.6. 6.0. 5.8. You’re now sitting in a balanced market, and most of the year you were
sitting in a buyer’s market, where prices were weakening. So overall, if we look at this, this is all pretty good news. And look at this, we compare September of
2018 to September of 2019, your sales are up by a whopping 46.3%! Good news. What about benchmark
price, well it was down. You’re down 7.5% okay, year over year. Well of course you are. The reason you’re down is because we spent most of the time in a buyer’s market, where prices are going to be weakening, but now we’re moving into
more of a balanced market, and you’ll probably see your prices are gonna start to stabilize. What about months of inventory
for the last three years? Months of inventory, supply
and demand determines price, but it’s got nothing to do with sales. In other words, it doesn’t mean
because you have low months of inventory, your sales are back to where they were three or four years ago. It’s got nothing to do with that. It just tells us what’s
happening with the price. Well, if we look here at
2017, market was good, right? Just over four. Came down into the two
range, crazy good, right? For 2017, ended 3.5. Basically a seller’s
market throughout the year. Then what happened?
2018 is the yellow one. We started just below four,
and then we’re going along, and of course what happens, we went all the way up to
8.2 months of inventory right here in September. Stayed well into a buyer’s
market, prices started to weaken. We ended the year at 9.6. This is where you were
getting price, okay, decreases right here, and we started, as I
showed you at almost 10. Prices weak, right? We go along, we’re still
very much right here, we’re still sitting in a buyer’s market. You know, we creep down to balance, back up to buyer’s, and now, we’re back
into a balanced market, but look at this, look where we were right here, so now, we’re below
where we were last year. I suspect we’re gonna stay below that for the rest of the year. Nobody knows for sure, but
I really think we will. So looking at this, there’s
two things happening in your market that I
think are very, very good. Number one, your sales
are up substantially from where they were last year. Yes, I know they’re not where
they were three years ago, but they’re up substantially
from last year. Good news. Second, your months of
inventory is balanced, which means your prices now will probably start to stabilize, and if the trend continues,
sales keep going up, maybe we’re gonna start to
move into a seller’s market at some point. Interesting chart here, I’m
gonna compare Greater Vancouver to Fraser Valley. What this is, detached, so
if we look just at detached, you can see 1.5 for September last year. Benchmark, we’re at
1.41. That’s down by 8.7% Down substantially, right?
That’s a big number. What about townhouses?
Same thing. 838. 768. Down by 8.4% Again, pretty substantial number, but the lowest decrease
was in condos. 687 to 652, down by 5.2% So your condo market is still sorta the strongest market you
have, which makes sense, because that’s what a lot of
first-time buyers can afford, and at most markets across Canada, in excess of 40% of the
sales are first-time buyers. But what about Fraser Valley? So remember what I
said, 8.7 detached down, 8.4. 5.2. Let’s go to Fraser Valley. Their detached increased, okay? $1,000,000, you can see just
over $1,000,000, up by 3%, but again, townhouses down by 4.6. Apartments down by two. So, the further we go from Vancouver, the stronger the market. It’s not crazy good, don’t get me wrong, but it’s a little bit better, right? Vancouver has taken the biggest hit. However, when the market was going up, who was going up more,
Vancouver, Fraser Valley? Vancouver. So it’s exactly the same thing. What happens, the market goes up more, chances are, it’s probably
gonna come down more. If it goes up a little less, right, chances are what’s gonna happen, it’s not gonna come down as much, in the correction, just like when you look at Alberta, what we’re seeing is very balanced there, it’s not really going up,
not really going down. So anyway, overall,
here’s what’s happening. Sales are starting to
increase year over year. Good news, right? Months of inventory starting
to decrease, year over year. Good news. If this continues, you’re
probably gonna start to move into a seller’s market at some point. Will it happen this year? Not convinced, but maybe next year it
could start to happen. Anyway, at the end of the day, I hope this was helpful, and remember, it’s a beautiful life. Make it count.

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