Calgary Real Estate Board | July 2019 Market Update
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Calgary Real Estate Board | July 2019 Market Update


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well, the numbers are in for the Calgary Real Estate Board for the month of July. Let’s have a look at what’s been going on from January through to July. I’m also gonna compare
this July to last July. I’ll show you Months of Inventory and then what I’m also gonna do is I’m gonna go back and compare to about you know, back to about 11 years ago and show you the comparison
to where we are right now. So if we look here in January you can see your Sales start about 800, then they started to creep
up, creep up, creep up, and May here we did 1921 Sales. Now this is normal, you
know, January, February a little slower, and then
they start to increase. Then what happened, May was
your strongest month so far this year and then we went
down to 1780 from 1921, that was in June, and look at July. We’re down to 1646, which is 7.5% lower than it was in the month of June. Not terribly uncommon. July and August tends to be a little bit slower, but the big thing is how was
your Months of Inventory. So let’s look at Active Listings. We started the year with 5500 listings. We go along, you can see that
June was our highest number was 7541, and then our inventory went down to 7179. Now again, this is normal. Your inventory will usually
drop in the month of July for the summer months. We’ll
probably see it pick back up a little bit in September. So you can see your
Sales were off by 7.5%, your listings, Active
Listings off by 4.8%. Now remember, if I take
this number, the Sales, and I divide it into this
number, the Active Listings, that gives me your Months of Inventory, which obviously determines the strength or weakness of a market. 4 to 6 balanced, below 4’s
gonna be a seller’s market, above 6 is gonna be a buyer’s market. Look at, we started here, 6.8 Months of Inventory in January. So obviously we’re, we’re sort of in the buyer market range if you will. Then we went down to round
balance, and it stayed, really between 4 and 6
for the rest of the year, look at 6, 5.0, 4.6, 3.9, startin’ to move a little more towards a seller market in some property types back up to 4.2 and we ended at 4.4. So up just slightly from last month. However, what about prices. We start a $451, we’re now $453. Our prices right now,
from January to right now, are almost identical, and our Days of the
Market, look, we’re at 59 days in the market or
you could say 2 months. And that’s been pretty
consistent all the way out throughout this year. But what happened in July of this year compared to July of last year? Actually very, very good
news. So let’s look at this. 2018, 1547 Sales. 2019, 1646. So our Sales are up by 8.3%. Nice number. What about prices? 2018 we’re $479, 2019 we’re $453. So our prices are off by 5.5%
over the last 12 month period and our Sales are up 8.3%. You might say “how come Sales
are up and prices are down?” Just because Months of Inventory
is still floatin’ around, you know 4, 5, 6 and was a little higher at the end of last year so
that brings down your a bit. Here’s your Months of Inventory. Now, I find something
really interesting here. So, this is 2017, let’s
forget that right now. Let’s look at 2000, okay right here 2018. So you can see we started
here but you see 2019, we started the year was almost 7 Months of Inventory, in 2019. Now prices are gonna be
weakening in here aren’t they. Look where we ended the year right here, you can see prices are gonna
be weakening here as well. Okay or I should say up here, sorry. On the yellow line, you can
see we’re sittin’ up here around 7 Months of Inventory. So this is why your prices
were starting to weaken a little bit, because of these numbers. But look at this. You see what’s happening,
your 2019, January, February, March, April, now we’re
below the 2018 numbers, do you see? Our market is strengthening. You know, we get in here
to May, we get into June, We get into July, July of 2018 you had 5.5 Months of Inventory, and then
this year, where we’re sitting in 2019 is 4.4 Months of Inventory. So that’s sort of a cool
number, so you’re trending the right way, and looks like your market, and I would suggest,
for the next few months, it’s gonna trend well below
2018, which means you’re in a stronger market, which
means prices will mean probably very balanced,
maybe even start to creep up a little bit as we get into the fall. Now here’s somethin’ I thought
you’d find interesting. I went back and I looked
at 2008 compared to 2019. You can see we did 2336
Sales, which is a lot more than what we did this year 1646. But look at the inventory
we had 13551 Sales. We only had 7179. You had 5.8 Months of Inventory
just over 10 years ago or 10 years ago, 11 years
ago, now you got 4.4. But if you look at this,
balance market, balance market. Which means, what has
happened to your prices in the last 11 years. $414, $453. not a lot. So it’s very interesting
if you go back in time, and you compare to 11
years ago, you can see that your prices, there hasn’t
been a lot of movement in your prices over the last 10, 11 years. But here’s my prediction
for Calgary in the fall, and who knows, just my prediction, I was wrong once in my
life, I think it was 1967. Just kiddin’ ya. Here’s what it is. I think what you’re gonna
see is you’re gonna see Sales are gonna start to pick up a little bit. I think August will be,
you know maybe right around what July is but I really do
think when we get into the fall rates have been coming
back down a little bit. I think September, October,
and moving into November you’re gonna see that
your Sales are gonna start to be up a little more, and
I think your Active Listings are gonna be down a little more. And I think what’s gonna
happen is you’re gonna see this trend line here start to
move a little more this way. And I would suspect, when we
move in to, the end of the year that your Months of Inventory’s
going to be below 2017 and 2018. So I’m saying
get ready for a decent fall as I think your Sales number are gonna
be up over what they were last year and I think your
Months of Inventory is gonna continue to drop as we move into the fall. Anyway, I hope this has been helpful and remember everybody,
it’s a beautiful life make it count.

2 Comments

  • Teach Ma

    Thank you for the breakdown, for the market comparison ( 2008 – 2019 ) if we take into consideration the factor of YoY inflation rate the house avg value need to be at 480k to break even ( 33 K loss of value as of today 6% average), adding to that the interest rate being 50% lower today compared to 2008… the outlook is everything but great for the current sellers, with the interest rates this low we can only go up in the next 5-10 years. we will probably see a slow adjustment of the market for the next 3 to 5 years.

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