Australian Property Market Update: March 2019
Articles,  Blog

Australian Property Market Update: March 2019


Hi and welcome to this Australian property
market update for March, 2019 this is a new segment that I’m going to try it where we
talk about how the Australian market is performing as well as talking about some key indicators
in cities as well. So basically what we’re doing in this video
is going through some of the data that called logic of shared in their monthly update video. I will link to directly to their video down
below so you can go ahead and check it out and collect that data yourself. But basically I’ve watched that and want to
share with you some of the key insights that I got from looking at the data. Hey, I’m Ryan from on property, helping you
achieve financial freedom. So obviously when you’re investing supporting,
then you understand where the market is at and the market has been declining for some
time now, so you definitely want to be looking at it. One of the first things that I notice from
this market update was that yes, we saw a decline in February of the Australian property
market, but the rate of decline is actually slowing and has been slowing for the last
two months. Now, two months probably isn’t long enough
to look at that. We want to continue to see that trend. But as I mentioned with Ben Everingham in
a previous video, when looking for the bottom of the market, you want to start to look for
the rate of decline slowing. So what I mean by rate of decline? Well, if this shine property market drops
by 1%, is that, did it drop by more this month or less this month than it did in prior months? So that’s something that you want to look
at. And as we can see that December I had the
largest rate of decline December, 2018 and then January and February had less decline
in those months. So the market’s still going backwards, but
the rate rate of decline is starting to slow, which may indicate that we’re going to see
the bottom of the market sometime soon. I don’t think there’s happening right now. Uh, but it looks like if that trend continues,
then we will start to flatten out and then see growth. So that could be within a month or two within
six months or 12 months. We’ll have to keep watching that to see the
tire market, the entire market as a whole is down 6.8% since since have peaked in October,
2017 so that puts us back to the same prices that we saw in September, 2016 so that was
about two and a half years ago. I was actually scaring through my site and
I did find some footage of myself from February, 2016 talking about how the peak maybe slowing
down, but I’ll talk about that in a future video. Something that they talked about is that Brisbane
is down 0.7% in the last three months and that this is the first time since I think
2012 where Brisbane has seen an annual comparison decline as well. Sydney, Melbourne on the other hand, a down
4.1% in the last three months. And I think it was just Hobart was the only
city that had seen positive growth and I think Adelaide was basically even, but they also
suggest in these videos that economic conditions are healthy and so maybe tighter lending conditions
that are dampening the market or it could also be market sentiment as well. It was really interesting in this video to
see the recent big decline in owner occupied lending, so we know that it has been more
difficult for investors to get lending for some time, but seeing the decline in owner
occupied lending is obviously something to keep an eye on as well. This may be caused by tighter lending restrictions
or it may be caused by market sentiment, meaning that not as many people are buying houses
at the moment, so therefore they don’t need new mortgages. But that’s definitely something to continue
watching as well because obviously if people can’t get mortgages, they can’t buy properties. Looking at the Brisbane market, they do highlight
that as the first time that annual change has turned a negative since 2012 but they
also say that it’s quite surprising given the population growth and the relative affordability
of housing in Brisbane. Again, this is something that we talked about
with Ben Everingham. I’ve created a video with him where we looked
at how Brisbane is actually cheaper than it was 10 years ago and I’ll link up to that
down below. So Brisbane is much more affordable than Sydney
and Melbourne. So they’re saying it’s surprising that it
has gone backwards and they also say that they aren’t expecting a major correction in
Brisbane because it didn’t have the run up that Sydney and Melbourne had as well. So it’d be interesting to watch it and interesting
to see that it has declined, but it’ll be interesting to watch and see how much does
it decline. They also highlight that interest rates are
at their lowest since the 1960s so that was a really interesting fact. That obviously makes lending easier for people
when interest rates are low, they can afford to have a larger mortgage. Looking at the Perth market, they highlighted
that Perth has been in an in an entrenched downturn since minute 2014 that’s really all
they had to say about the Perth market. Looking at Melbourne, we saw a 1% for in February
and a total decline of 9.6% since the peak of the market and houses were actually down
more than units in the area. And something that I thought was really interesting
across both Sydney and Melbourne was that more expensive houses were down a lot more
than the more affordable houses. So the more expensive houses, so the highest
quarter, so the highest quarter of houses in terms of pricing, it was down 13.1% and
the lowest quartile has only seen a 2.1% decline. So it’s really interesting to see that even
within a market like Sydney, different house pricing affects how much your property is
declining in a declining market. So the more expensive the property, the Meu,
we’re seeing that decline. But on the more affordable end of the spectrum,
we’re seeing a lot less decline in both Melbourne and Sydney. So looking at Sydney, there was a decline
of 4.1% in the last three months. So remember Brisbane was a decline of 0.7%
in the last three months. Sydney was 4.1% in just a three month period,
which is crazy. Uh, with butter rate of decline is easing. It eased, sort of slowed down to 1% in February. So it’d be really interesting to watch Sydney
as well. Sydney actually peaked four months earlier
then Melbourne did. So I wonder if Sydney will lead the charge
in terms of bottoming out before Melbourne. Will it continue to be four months ahead of
Melbourne? Can we watch Sydney and see what Melbourne’s
going to do? So Sydney or decline is easing or slowing
down, which we’ll continue to watch. And there’s been a total decline of 10.1%
since the peak. So Melbourne, sir, client, 9.6% Sydney is
declined by 10.1% and then Adelaide, they went on to say that Adelaide was holding steady
and they didn’t discuss other markets like Darwin or Hobart. But I do believe that Hobart saw an increase
over the last three months as well. So there’s just some interesting things that
I got out of the core logic video. I will link up to that video in the description
down below, but this is something that I want to stay on top of and want to share with you. So if you do like this video, please let me
know by leaving a thumbs up or leaving a comment down below. And if you like this, then I’ve continued
to do it once a month. The core logic videos don’t get many views
there and they get a couple of hundred views or something like that. So I figured out not a lot of people are out
there watching this, but it’s really valuable information to watch and it’s really gonna
help us keep a pulse on the market in just a quick video once a month. So I hope you enjoy this. I hope you like it. Go ahead and check out a previous video that
I did with Ben on how Brisbane is now cheaper than it was 10 years ago. That’s absolutely crazy. I can’t believe that. Link to that down below. Thanks so much for tuning in today, everyone,
and until next time, stay positive.

16 Comments

  • Jack Freeman

    The downturn has a longggggg way to go, all the domestic and foreign investors have disapeared, owner occupiers arn't buying, and overall every ones finance levels are reduced by 30%ish so reasonable to expect the market to come down 30% before people can start buying again

  • Stella

    All you need to do is look at the Banks. They are not lending so the market will continue to drop – The good times are over, until the next boom.

  • Amadd

    I don't think that "investors", for want of a better word, will be jumping back on anytime soon. Feb, March, April and May are some pretty good months for selling so the FONGO'S might do well to cut their losses if they've found themselves in an unaffordable situation.

  • Doc Dude

    Very Amateur review, Sydney is down 16%, Melbourne similar, no one cares about Brisbane. Look at D.A. approvals kid, thats the best forecast you can get.
    Your looking at the facts after the case so your reporting on history and guessing the rest.

  • roger saul

    I have seen many of these types and if you are lost about what to do watch a channel called walk the world. They crunch the data and its not great.

  • Ryan Jackson

    Can you and Ben do a video about unpaid rent from investment properties and best way to claim it. Having an issue with one of my investments. This is a big issue when u r renting properties and no one talk about it

  • Aziz Khan

    The Australian real estate market is going to crash very bad it's going to be the worst in the history of any country not just Australia. Do not believe in the Australian real estate board or crow logic or any buddy else whom benefiting from bullshit.

  • Mohammed Hossain

    Banks not interested to invest in housing through customers causing down fall of housing market.
    Affordablity to purchase house is also going down which asking to be rental . Income of people is going down or not ? That is the question . Has the supply of houses increased or demand gone down to make the price low as per free market economy formula ? You are to look for. this housing market crisis. What’s going on.?

  • Timmy Schnitzel

    Darwin and Hobart real estate is irrelevant. Their populations are 120,000 and 200,000 respectively. This is why national average figures are nonsense. Meanwhile parts of Sydney have fallen over 33% to 49%. That's a real estate crash, and painting it otherwise is dishonest.

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